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Flocks don’t tell tales

Last updated on July 13, 2025 by Temi Cole Leave a Comment

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Commercially bred flocks – either broilers or layers are highly specified products. Creatures (and therefore, by nature) expressing variation, but selectively bred (by design) for predictable results.

The poultry business, like any other, succeeds on the odds of certainty and the avoidance of surprise.

Whilst in many other realms of life we might celebrate the abundance that nature’s variation provides, in the domain of investment where furture cash flows are paid in advance…

…the unexpected spells jeopardy not jackpot for investors.

There much of the pursuit of business is about engineering systems that producing replicas. Carbon copy performances, based on a winning formula.

Systems run expected routines. Control variables. Produce consistent results.

Commercial breed broilers or layers are such systems. The result of successive rounds of selective breeding. The result of which locks in favourable traits including:

  1. optimal feed conversion e.g. feed consumption and muscle growth, and;
  2. desirable taste and appearance of meat or eggs for consumers.

Being able to predict, the typical performance of a bird from day one to processing date i.e. how much it will eat, what rate it will grow leads to accurate estimation of revenue and profit – every growing cycle.

This typecasting for the role is measured down to a single grain of feed per bird.

  • If a bird eats more than expected: your farm spends more than expected – profits are decreased.
  • If a brid eats less than expected: your farm spends less than expected – profits are increased.

Whilst there is some variation of performance to be expected from bird to bird, this is generally expected and accepted to lie within a predictable standard deviation from the ideal value.

It’s not the peak, but the average assumed. So anything above is counted bonus and anything below as an underachievement, albeit an acceptable underachievement – as long as it’s within range…say, +/-10% from the average, for example.

Whilst we bank on projected averages in business, we acknowledge that averages are only but cumulative figures that are representative of each individual contributor.

In other words, rear the birds right and the flocks look after themselves.

Said differently again, the more birds that score a below-average performance, causes a proportional downward shift of the overall picture. Too many negatives and your average slides outside of the range of standard deviation and then forces your poultry business into unchartered losses.

This means your return on investment takes a knock. Bad news for investors, stakeholders and owners.

Root cause?

Always the variables.

When using commercial breeds, however, the breeder has done the job of removing the bird itself from being one of those culpable variables.

Remember, as said earlier, commercial breeds are bred to perform. Each breed’s management guide will tell you within the finest degree of precision, exactly what performance outcome you can expect.

So if the birds are reliable, where else do we look?

Actually – anywhere else…

…feed, ventilation, litter, drinking water, temperature, lighting, space allocation, biosecurity…

…just to name a few variables, each of which could make a significant impact on the performance of your flocks.

Namely, the things you control.

How do we monitor and measure performance?

The ultimate measure for flock performance is FCR (feed conversion ratio) = weight of feed consumed for eggs or meat produced.

Each breed has its own target FCR.

Benchmark against the breeder’s FCR against your own farm’s.

Neither your flock nor the numbers will tell any tales.

Filed Under: Chicken Snippets

Temi Cole
Mr. Temi Cole
šŸ„‡Author, The Big Book Project

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Temi Cole
Mr. Temi Cole
Author, The Big Book Project

Thanks for visiting my website.
"Let's make poultry profitable together!"
Begin by becoming a subscriber to my investor newsletter, online courses and consulting . Within this site you'll find 300+ learning resources inc. articles, content hubs, sample plans, data sets, calculators and templates. Take a look around and enjoy the conversation..

My Story Start Here Free eBook

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